ICMarket

Wednesday 4th January 2023 : Bond traders price in rate cuts despite Fed rhetoric

Global Markets:

  • Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 1.45%, Shanghai Composite up 0.22%, Hang Seng up 3.14%, ASX up 1.63%
  • Commodities : Gold at $1866.65 (+1.11%), Silver at $24.49 (+1.05%), Brent Oil at $80.60 (-1.83%), WTI Oil at $75.58 (-1.75%)
  • Rates : US 10-year yield at 3.696, UK 10-year yield at 3.613, Germany 10-year yield at 2.307

News & Data:

  • (EUR) German Final Services PMI 49.2 vs 49 expected
  • (EUR) French Final Services PMI 49.5 vs 48.1 expected
  • (EUR) Italian Services PMI 49.9 vs 49.5 expected
  • (EUR) Spanish Services PMI 51.6 vs 50.8 expected
  • (EUR) French Prelim CPI m/m -0.10% vs 0.50% expected
  • (CHF) CPI m/m -0.20% vs -0.10% expected
  • (EUR) German Import Prices m/m -4.50% vs -1.70% expected
  • (JPY) Final Manufacturing PMI 48.9 vs 48.8 expected
  • (GBP) BRC Shop Price Index y/y 7.30% vs 7.40% previous
  • (USD) Construction Spending m/m 0.20% vs -0.40% expected
  • (USD) Final Manufacturing PMI 46.2 vs 46.2 expected
  • (NZD) GDT Price Index -2.80% vs -3.80% previous
  • (CAD) Manufacturing PMI 49.2 vs 49.9 expected
  • (GBP) Final Manufacturing PMI 45.3 vs 44.7 expected
  • (EUR) German Unemployment Change -13K vs 15K expected
  • (CHF) Manufacturing PMI 54.1 vs 53 expected
  • (EUR) Spanish Unemployment Change -43.7K vs -40.3K expected

Markets Update:

Asian stocks rose broadly on Wednesday and the dollar eased after reports emerged that the wave of COVID infections sweeping across China may already have peaked in some of the country’s largest cities. Traders keenly awaited minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting later in the day and Friday’s employment report for clues to the central bank’s future actions. Fed funds futures traders are pricing for rate cuts later this year despite hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials.

Japanese shares tumbled as traders returned to their desks after a long holiday weekend for the New Year. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index jumped 3% after China’s property developers reported forecast-beating December sales. China’s Shanghai Composite index edged up on hopes of swift post-COVID recovery and more policy support to boost the economy.

The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was down 4.1 basis points at 4.364%. Oil prices steadied after diving 4.1% on Tuesday, the largest daily decline in more than three months, weighed by weak demand data from China, a gloomy economic outlook and a stronger U.S. dollar.

Upcoming Events:

  • 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) M4 Money Supply m/m
  • 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Mortgage Approvals
  • 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Net Lending to Individuals m/m
  • 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) JOLTS Job Openings
  • 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) ISM Manufacturing Prices
  • All Day – (USD) Wards Total Vehicle Sales
  • 07:00 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • 11:50 PM GMT – (JPY) Monetary Base y/y