ICMarket

Wednesday 20th October : Technical Outlook and Review

DXY:

On the H4 timeframe, prices have broken out of our ascending trendline and appear to be consolidating in a channel. We see potential for prices to dip from our 1st resistance at 93.842 in line with 100% Fibonacci extension which is a graphical overlap towards our 1st support at 93.493 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension and also a graphical overlap.  Technical indicators are showing bearish momentum. Alternatively, prices may climb towards our 1st resistance at 94.842 in line with 100% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame,1st resistance at 93.842
  • H4 time frame, 2nd resistance 94.162
  • H4 time frame, 1st support at 93.493

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the H4 chart, prices are consolidating in a triangle. Prices have recently tested our previous intermediate resistance and reversed to test our bullish trendline. We would watch our intermediate resistance at 1776.29 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement for a small pullback. Alternatively, surpassing the intermediate resistance would expect a climb towards our 1st resistance at 1794.43 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension and in line with our descending trendline.  Technical indicators are showing bullish momentum. Alternatively, prices might dip towards our 1st Support at 1750.80 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

  • 4h 1st support at 1750.80
  • 4h intermediate resistance at 1782.44
  • 4h 1st resistance at 1792.54

EUR/USD:

On the H4 chart, price has recently reacted from the first resistance which is also 50% retracement  and 78.6% projection level. The first resistance is also a pullback resistance level. Price can then potentially dip back to the first support level of 1.15768 which is also 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% projection level. Alternatively if price were to break the first resistance, it can potentially go to the 2nd resistance of 1.17104. Our temporary bearish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator as it is currently near resistance level.

Key considerations :

H4 first resistance – 1.16648

H4 first support – 1.15768

USD/CHF:

On the H4, price is seen to have broken past the ascending trendline support, signifying a bearish momentum. In reference to yesterday’s  analysis, price did indeed move down to the 1st Support at 0.92028 and it bounced up. We can now expect price to retrace down to the 1st Support in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement if price is able to break down from the intermediate support.  Our bearish bias is further supported by the RSI indicator where it is abiding to a descending trendline resistance.

Areas of consideration:

  • Watch 1st Support at 0.92028
  • Watch 1st Resistance at 0.92617

GBP/USD:

On the H4 chart , price is trading in an ascending channel and near our first resistance level of 1.38352 which is also 127% retracement and 61.8% projection level. Price can potentially do a short pull back to first support level of 1.37189 which is also 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Our temporary bearish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator which shows that it is at our resistance level.

Key areas of consideration:

H4 first resistance : 1.38352

H4 first support : 1.37189

 

USD/JPY

On the H4 timeframe, we can expect the price to hit 1st Resistance in line with 161.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection and drop down towards the 1st Support in line with 100% Fibonacci projection and 127.2% Fibonacci retracement. Our short-term bearish bias is further supported by the RSI indicator where it abided below a descending trendline resistance and showing a bearish divergence.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 1st resistance level 114.842
  • H4 1st support level 113.721

AUD/USD:

On the H4, price is seen to have reached our 1st resistance just as we expected yesterday. Currently, price is right in the middle of the new 1st Resistance and 1st Support and reacting at the level intermediate resistance, if price break pass the intermediate resistance we can confirm a further upside to the 1st Resistance in line with the 100% Fibonacci projection and 127.2% Fibonacci retracement. Our bullish bias is further supported by the RSI indicator abiding to the ascending trendline support.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 1st resistance level 0.75361
  • H4 1st support level 0.74265

NZD/USD:

On the H4 timeframe, price is on a bullish momentum. Price could potentially experience a small pullback towards our 1st support at 0.71025 in line with 23.6% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stochastics are at a level where pullbacks previously happened. Breaking the 1st support might find prices dipping further towards our 2nd support at 0.72264 in line with 100% Fibonacci extension and 161.8% Fibonacci projection.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 0.71711
  • H4 time frame, 1st support at 0.71025

USD/CAD:

On the H4, with the existing bearish sentiment where price is moving below the ichimoku and in a downwards trend within the channel, we may expect to see price head for 1st support at 1.23114 which is a horizontal swing low support in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci extension and 127.2% Fibonacci projection and possibly even head to 2nd support at 1.22876 in line with the 100% and 161.8% Fibonacci extension level and 78.6%, 100% and 161.8% Fibonacci projection level. Alternatively, price may break the channel and head for 1st resistance at 1.23762 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci extension and may even head to 2nd resistance at 1.24153.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support at 23114
  • H4 time frame, resistance at 23762

OIL:

On the H4 timeframe, we have a bullish bias which is supported by the ichimoku indicator and the ascending channel. From 1st support at 84.66  in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, we may see price head for 1st resistance at 86.09 which is a horizontal swing high resistance in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Our bullish bias is further supported by the ascending trend line on the RSI indicator. Alternatively, we may break 1st support structure at 84.66 which is our horizontal overlap support and head for 2nd support at 82.38.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 09
  • H4 time frame, 1st support of 66

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the H4, with price is approaching the resistance of the ascending channel and 1st resistance at 35507 which is a graphical horizontal swing high resistance in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension and 100% Fibonacci projection, we have a bearish bias that price will head down from here to 1st support at 35058 which is a horizontal overlap support . Price may even head for 2nd support at 34877 in line with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Otherwise, if price breaks structure at 1st resistance, we may likely see a new high at 2nd resistance at 35644.

Areas of consideration:

  • 4H resistance at 35007
  • 4H support at 35058

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