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Monday 15th March 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices broke our ascending trend line and key support-turned-resistance level at 1.20000, where we could see a further downside before prices reach the next support target at 1.17800, which coincides with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. The daily time frame echoes the same bearish view as well and we could see a further downside below our resistance level at 1.2000, with 1.17800 as the next support target.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are approaching our resistance level at 1.2000, in line with the 61.8% fibonacci retracement, where we could see limited upside above our support level at 1.19105. We could see a reversal below our H4 resistance level at 1.2000 and a break below our H4 support at 1.19105 could see a further drop to our next support level at 1.18379.

Areas of consideration:

  • 19105 support area found on H4 time frame
  • 2000 resistance area on weekly, daily and H4 time frames

GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are approaching our ascending trend line and weekly support area at 1.35000 where we could see a further downside before it reaches our support level, in line with the graphical pullback support area and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. On the daily time frame, prices are approaching our support area at 1.37500, which coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% fibonacci extension and ascending trend line. Both time frames echo the same view that we could be seeing further downside before prices reach our support area.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are facing bearish pressure from our resistance area at 1.4000, in line with our graphical overlap resistance area and 50% fibonacci retracement. We could see a further drop below this level to test our next support level at 1.38952, which is the key support level found on the H4 frame. A break below this level could provide the bearish acceleration to our next support level at 1.37500, in line the graphical support area and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

  • 4000 resistance area found on H4 time frame
  • 38952 support area found on H4 timeframe

AUD/USD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the price has broken the ascending trendline support turned-resistance drawn from 9th March (2020), where the current move of the price is respecting. On the Daily timeframe, price is respecting the level of 0.77555 where 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 88% fibonacci extension are. Price is also approaching the next level of resistance at 127% fibonacci extension and 88% fibonacci retracement. We may see a push upwards towards the 0.78151 level where the fibonacci confluences are. And lastly, on the H4, price has reversed from the major figure of 0.78 back down towards the 0.77555 level where a retest of the previous broken Daily resistance turned-support level can be seen. We may now see a further push up towards 0.78151 level where the fibonacci confluence and previous swing high are.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 price may push up further towards 0.78151 from 0.77267.
  • Weekly and Daily time frames both show space for bullish momentum.

USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are reaching resistance which coincides with horizontal swing high as well as 100% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci retracement. On the daily time frame however, a smaller pullback could be seen and prices might pullback to the support level which coincides with 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 50% fibonacci extension. In the H4 time frame, prices might bounce from  support level which coincides with 50% fibonacci retracement and 50% fibonacci extension to the daily horizontal swing high resistance level. Prices are also holding above Ichimoku cloud, suggesting a bullish pressure on prices.

Areas of consideration:

  • On the H4, prices might pull back to 108.841 level which coincides with 50% fibonacci retracement and 50% fibonacci extension
  • 850 is a strong resistance level

USD/CAD:

Looking at the weekly chart, price has pushed lower and may find support at the 1.23749, where the fibonacci confluences are. In the daily time frame, we have achieved the target of -27% fibonacci retracement from the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level, price has also broken the previous swing low support turned-resistance level. Lastly, on H4, we are able to see price showed a reaction bounced from the 78.6% fibonacci retracement before pushing further lower, and even breaking the previous swing low level, where the bearish momentum is still looking strong. We may see the next level of support being found bear 1.23959, where -61.8%, 127% fibonacci retracement confluence are, and within touching distance of the Weekly support level.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 may drop further towards 1.23959 where fibonacci confluences are.
  • Daily and weekly time frames are both showing strong bearish momentum.

USD/CHF:

On the weekly chart, USD/CHF is approaching the descending trendline resistance and weekly 0.95000 resistance level, which is in line with our 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The daily timeframe also shows a slight pullback, where we could potentially see a further bullish rise up to test the weekly 0.95000 weekly resistance level.

On the H4 chart, we can see that price has been consolidating and moving sideways after a reversal at our 0.93800 resistance level, which is in line with our 61.8% Fibonacci extension level. We note that price continues to hold above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating bullish pressure. We could potentially see price push higher from here to test our 0.93800 resistance level again, and subsequently the 0.95000 weekly resistance level. Otherwise, should price hold below the 0.93800 level , we may see further downside towards the 0.90800 support level instead.

Areas of consideration:

  • 93800 resistance level is an important level to watch on the H4 chart.
  • Price could push higher to test the 0.93800 and 0.95000 resistance levels.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price pushed higher surpassing previous resistance and making new highs. A further push higher towards resistance at 34600 could be possible as long as price holds above 31190 support. On the Daily, technical indicators continue to show room for further bullish momentum. Buyers could possibly look to add to their longs on any price pullbacks with possible target at 34600 weekly resistance. Otherwise, failure to hold above 31190 could see price pull back towards weekly support at 29570.

On the H4, technical indicators on the short term confirms the technical indicators on the daily. It also shows room for further bullish upside. An intraday push up above 32148 support towards 33590 resistance could be possible. Otherwise, failure to hold above 32148 support could see price pullback towards 31190 weekly support.

Areas of consideration:

  • Watch intraday support at 32148.
  • Technical indicators on daily and H4 confirms room for further upside.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, gold is currently holding between 1774 resistance and 1670 support.  Long term traders should continue to watch these two levels as a break of either will see price swing in that direction. However we note that price is still holding below the long term moving average. On the daily chart, we see price reacting above weekly support at 1670. A limited push up towards 1774 resistance could be likely.

On the 4H timeframe price tested and is still holding below the moving average and 1730 resistance, we see a medium probability bearish scenario where sellers may enter at this area and add to their shorts to push price lower towards 1670 weekly support. Failure to hold below 1730 will see price rise towards next resistance at 1764.

Areas of consideration:

  • Watch closely 1730 intraday resistance

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