IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 7 June 2024
What happened in the Asia session?
It was a quiet session as markets await the much-awaited U.S. employment report. The dollar index (DXY) hovered above the threshold of 104 while gold climbed back above $2,380/oz and crude prices remained elevated.
What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
The BLS will release the employment situation report for the month of May where the NFPs are expected to rise by 186K while the unemployment rate is anticipated to remain unchanged at 3.9%. NFPs added just 175K jobs as it fell short of market expectations for an increase of 243K while the unemployment rate surprised markets negatively by rising from 3.8% to 3.9% in April. The recent job gains and estimate for May trails the 12-month average of 242K and should this report also indicate slower job growth for the second consecutive month, the dollar will likely face another strong sell-off later today.
Canada will also release its version of the NFPs where employment change is expected to increase by just 27.8K, compared to 90.4K in the previous month, while the unemployment rate is anticipated to edge higher from 6.1% to 6.2% in May. Whatever the outcome, it is bound to be a highly volatile period for the Loonie.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
BLS Employment Report (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from DXY today?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the employment situation report for the month of May where the non-farm payrolls (NFPs) are expected to rise by 186K while the unemployment rate is anticipated to remain unchanged at 3.9%. NFPs added just 175K jobs as it fell short of market expectations for an increase of 243K while the unemployment rate surprised markets negatively by rising from 3.8% to 3.9% in April. The recent job gains and estimate for May trails the 12-month average of 242K and should this report also indicate slower job growth for the second consecutive month, the dollar will likely face another strong sell-off later today.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Federal Funds Rate target range remained unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50% for the sixth meeting in a row.
- The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance over the past year.
- The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated and in recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s 2% inflation objective.
- Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low.
- In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
- The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labour market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
- In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion.
- The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities.
- Next meeting runs from 11 to 12 June 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
BLS Employment Report (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Gold today?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the employment situation report for the month of May where the non-farm payrolls (NFPs) are expected to rise by 186K while the unemployment rate is anticipated to remain unchanged at 3.9%. NFPs added just 175K jobs as it fell short of market expectations for an increase of 243K while the unemployment rate surprised markets negatively by rising from 3.8% to 3.9% in April. The recent job gains and estimate for May trails the 12-month average of 242K and should this report also indicate slower job growth for the second consecutive month, the dollar will likely face another strong sell-off to potentially boost gold prices later today.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from AUD today?
The Aussie reversed sharply from 0.6635 at the beginning of the U.S. session to hit an overnight high of 0.6673. This currency pair was trading around 0.6665 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.6630
Resistance: 0.6700
Central Bank Notes:
- The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%, marking the eighth pause out of the last nine board meetings.
- The CPI grew by 3.6% over the year to the March quarter, down from 4.1% cent over the year to December. Underlying inflation was higher than headline inflation and declined by less – this was due in large part to services inflation, which remains high and is moderating only gradually.
- The central forecasts, based on the assumption that the cash rate follows market expectations, are for inflation to return to the target range of 2 to 3% in the second half of 2025, and to the midpoint in 2026.
- In the near term, inflation is forecast to be higher because of the recent rise in domestic petrol prices, and higher than expected services price inflation, which is now forecast to decline more slowly over the rest of the year.
- Inflation is, however, expected to decline over 2025 and 2026.
- The path of interest rates that will best ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe remains uncertain and the Board is not ruling anything in or out.
- Next meeting is on 18 June 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from NZD today?
The Kiwi rebounded strongly as it bounced from 0.6174 to hit an overnight high of 0.6205. This currency pair was trading around 0.6190 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.6170
Resistance: 0.6220
Central Bank Notes:
- The Monetary Policy Committee kept the OCR unchanged at 5.50% for the seventh meeting in a row and agreed that interest rates need to remain at a restrictive level for a sustained period to ensure annual headline CPI inflation returns to the 1 to 3% target range.
- Restrictive monetary policy is contributing to an easing in capacity pressures while headline inflation, core inflation, and most measures of inflation expectations are continuing to decline. However, domestic inflation has fallen more slowly than expected and headline CPI inflation remains above the Committee’s target band.
- Higher dwelling rents, insurance costs, council rates, and other domestic services price inflation have resulted in a slow decline in domestic inflation, posing a risk to inflation expectations.
- GDP declined by 0.1% in the December 2023 quarter with economic growth having now been negative for four of the past five quarters. High interest rates have reduced household spending, as well as residential and business investment, despite very strong population growth. Recent indicators of economic activity have been weak, as expected.
- Next meeting is on 10 July 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from JPY today?
The yen strengthened slightly overnight causing USD/JPY to retreat from its overnight high of 156.45 down to as low as 155.48. This currency pair was trading around 155.80 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 154.70
Resistance: 156.60
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank considers that the policy framework of Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Yield Curve Control and the negative interest rate policy to date have fulfilled their roles. With the price stability target of 2%, it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate, guiding the short-term interest rate as a primary policy tool.
- The Bank of Japan decided on the following measures:
- The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0 to 0.1% while continuing its JGB purchases with broadly the same amount as before.
- In addition, the Bank will discontinue purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) and will also gradually reduce the amount of purchases of CP and corporate bonds and will discontinue the purchases in about one year.
- In a quarterly outlook, the committee revised higher CPI prints for FY 2024 to 2.8% from January’s projections of 2.4%, due to the waning effects of higher import prices and fewer government support measures.
- For 2025, the board expects core inflation to hit 1.9%, slightly higher than its earlier estimates of 1.8%, reflecting a recent rise in oil prices.
- Policymakers cut their 2023 GDP growth forecast to 1.3% from 1.8% and for FY 2024, the bank also slashed its GDP outlook to 0.8% from 1.2%, mainly reflecting lower private consumption.
- Next meeting is on 14 June 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from EUR today?
Despite the ECB cutting its main refinancing rate by 25 basis points bringing it down from 4.5% to 4.25% during yesterday’s announcement, the Euro spiked from 1.0865 to 1.0900 in a 15-minute duration as the central bank raised inflation forecasts for both headline and core CPI in 2024 and 2025. Domestic price pressures remain elevated and continue to indicate a challenging inflationary environment. ECB President Christine Lagarde was also more hawkish than neutral during her press conference as she emphasized the need for more data to confirm the disinflationary path and noted that although there are signs of a recent decline, wages remain elevated. Furthermore, she affirmed that the ECB is far from reaching the neutral rate, which remains a key objective for the central bank.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points after nine months of holding rates steady.
- Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 4.25%, 4.50% and 3.75% respectively, with effect from 12 June 2024.
- Since September 2023, inflation has fallen by more than 2.5% and the inflation outlook has improved markedly while underlying inflation has also eased, reinforcing the signs that price pressures have weakened, and inflation expectations have declined at all horizons.
- At the same time, despite the progress over recent quarters, domestic price pressures remain strong as wage growth is elevated, and inflation is likely to stay above target well into next year – the latest Eurosystem staff projections for both headline and core inflation have been revised up for 2024 and 2025 compared with the March projections.
- Projections now show headline inflation averaging 2.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026 while economic growth is expected to pick up to 0.9% in 2024, 1.4% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026.
- The Council also confirmed that it will reduce the Eurosystem’s holdings of securities under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) by €7.5 billion per month on average over the second half of the year.
- The Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner and will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim and is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
- Next meeting is on 18 July 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CHF today?
Demand for the franc remains strong putting downward pressure on USD/CHF since the beginning of the week. This currency pair was trading around 0.8900 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.8880
Resistance: 0.8950
Central Bank Notes:
- The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, going from 1.75% to 1.50% in March.
- For some months now, inflation has been back below 2% and thus in the range the SNB equates with price stability.
- According to the new forecast, inflation is also likely to remain in this range over the next few years.
- The forecast puts average annual inflation at 1.4% for 2024, 1.2% for 2025 and 1.1% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
- Swiss GDP growth was moderate in the fourth quarter of last year and it is likely to remain modest in the coming quarters.
- Overall, Switzerland’s GDP is likely to grow by around 1% this year.
- Next meeting is on 20 June 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from GBP today?
Cable found support around 1.2770 to stage a rebound during the U.S. session to hit an overnight high of 1.2796. This currency pair remained elevated and was trading around 1.2790 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 1.2700
Resistance: 1.2820
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7-to-2 to maintain its Official Bank Rate at 5.25% for the sixth consecutive meeting.
- Two members preferred to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5%, an increase of one from the previous meeting.
- Twelve-month CPI inflation fell to 3.2% in March from 3.4% in February and is expected to return to close to the 2% target in the near term, but increase slightly in the second half of this year to around 2.5% owing to the unwinding of energy-related base effects.
- CPI inflation is projected to be 1.9% in two years’ time and 1.6% in three years in the May Report. With respect to indicators of inflation persistence, services consumer price inflation has declined but remains elevated at 6% in March.
- Following modest weakness last year, UK GDP is expected to have risen by 0.4% in 2024 Q1 and to grow by 0.2% in Q2, stronger than expected in the February Report. Despite picking up during the forecast period, demand growth is expected to remain weaker than potential supply growth throughout most of that period.
- The MPC remains prepared to adjust monetary policy as warranted by economic data to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably and will therefore continue to monitor closely indications of persistent inflationary pressures and resilience in the economy as a whole, including a range of measures of the underlying tightness of labour market conditions, wage growth and services price inflation.
- Next meeting is on 20 June 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
Labour Force Report (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from CAD today?
Canada will also release its version of the NFPs where employment change is expected to increase by just 27.8K, compared to 90.4K in the previous month, while the unemployment rate is anticipated to edge higher from 6.1% to 6.2% in May. Whatever the outcome, it is bound to be a highly volatile period for the Loonie later today.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% while continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.
- Canada’s economic growth resumed in the first quarter of 2024 after stalling in the second half of last year. At 1.7%, first-quarter GDP growth was slower than forecast in the MPR but consumption growth was solid at about 3%, and business investment and housing activity also increased.
- Inflation remains above the 2% target and shelter price inflation is high but total CPI inflation has declined consistently over the course of this year, and indicators of underlying inflation increasingly point to a sustained easing.
- CPI inflation has eased from 3.4% in December to 2.7% in April while the preferred measures of core inflation have come down from about 3.5% last December to about 2.75% in April and the 3-month rate of core inflation slowed from about 3.5% in December to under 2% in March and April.
- In the labour market, businesses are continuing to hire workers as employment has been growing, but at a slower pace than the working-age population while elevated wage pressures look to be moderating gradually.
- The Governing Council is closely watching the evolution of core inflation and remains particularly focused on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour.
- Recent data has increased the council’s confidence that inflation will continue to move towards the 2% target. Nonetheless, risks to the inflation outlook remain.
- Next meeting is on 24 July 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
Oil
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from Oil today?
Oil prices rose for the second day in a row as OPEC+ reassured markets with Saudi Arabia and Russia indicating a willingness to pause or reverse output agreements which would restrict supply and potentially lift prices. WTI oil jumped above the $75-level overnight and was trading around $75.70 per barrel this morning.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
