ICMarket

12th August 2022 Friday: Technical Outlook and Review

USD/JPY:

On the H4, prices are still respecting the descending trend and are testing the 50% fibonacci retracement. If prices continues with the bearish momentum, we are looking at price pulling back to test at the first support 131.434 where the fibonacci projection as well as the previous swing low sits. If prices goes into a bullish momentum, we are expecting prices to test at the first resistance 135.586 where the 61.8% fibonacci retracement sits.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 135.586
  • H4 time frame, 1st support at 131.434

DXY:

On the H4, price is moving in a descending trend and has confirmed a bearish momentum. It is now testing around the 104.689 level where the first support sits and 78.6% fibonacci retracement sits. If price continues the bearish momentum, it will bring price down to 103.697 where the previous swing low sits.. Alternatively, prices might pull back to test the first resistance at 106.945

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 106.945
  • H4 time frame, 1st support at 104.689

EUR/USD :

On the H4, with prices moving along the ascending trend and above the ichimoku indicator, we are bullish bias. Prices have tested the first resistance at 1.03583 where the 61.8% fibonacci retracement sits and is pulling back slightly. If prices fails to break the first resistance, it will pull back further to test at the first support 1.020 where the previous swing low sits and subsequently the second support at 1.012 level  

Areas of consideration :

  • H4 1st resistance at 1.035
  • H4 1st support at 1.020

GBP/USD:

On the H4, with price moving within an ascending trend and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to test the first resistance at 1.227 where the 78.6% fibonacci retracement sits and subsequently the second resistance at 1.240. If prices fail to break the first resistance, we can confirm a bearish momentum where prices will pull back and test the first support at 1.206 where the 78.6% fibonacci retracement sits 

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 1st resistance at 1.227
  • H4 1st support at 1.206

USD/CHF:

On the H4, with prices moving below the ichimoku cloud and the MACD indicators are below zero, we have a bearish bias that the price  will continue with the bearish momentum and pull back to test at the first support 0.937. If prices fail to break first support, it may pull back to test the first resistance at 0.954 where the 61.8% fibonacci retracement and previous swing low sits. If prices continues with bullish momentum, it will then pull back further to test at the second resistance 0.965 

Areas of consideration

  • H4 1st support at 0.937
  • H4 1st resistance at 0.954

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the H4, with prices breaking the ascending trendline and MACD histograms are expanding below zero axis, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the 1st support at 1782.660, which is in line with the overlap support and 23.6% fibonacci retracement to the 2nd support at 1759.795, which is in line with the overlap support and 38.2% fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, the price may rise back to the ascending channel and rise to the 1st resistance at 1807.511, which is in line with the swing high. 

Areas of consideration: 

  • H4 time frame,  1st support at 1782.660
  • H4 time frame,  2nd support  at 1759.79

AUD/USD:

On the H4, with the price is over ichimoku cloud and MACD histograms are above zero axis,  we have a bullish bias that price may rise from the 1st support at 0.70679, where the pullback support and 23.6% fibonacci retracement are to the 1st resistance at 0.71603 where the 78.6% fibonacci projection, 78.6% fibonacci retracement and swing low are. Alternatively, price may drop to the 2nd support at 0.69984 which is in line with 50% fibonacci retracement and pullback support. 

Areas of consideration 

  • H4 1st support at 0.70679
  • H4 1st resistance at 0.71603

NZD/USD:

On the H4, with the price is over ichimoku cloud and MACD histograms are above zero axis,  we have a bullish bias that price may rise from the 1st resistance at 0.64665, where the swing high and 78.6% fibonacci retracement are to the 2nd resistance at 0.65736 where the swing high is. Alternatively, price may drop to the 1st support at 0.63630 which is in line with 23.6% fibonacci retracement and overlap support. 

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 0.64665
  • H4 time frame, 2nd resistance at 0.65736 

USD/CAD:

On the H4, with the price going below ichimoku cloud, and falling below 50&200 MA, MACD histograms are below zero axis , we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from our 1st support at 1.27323, which is in line with the swing low to our 2nd support at 1.26477, which is in line with the -27.2% fibonacci expansion. Alternatively, as the histograms are shrinking to zero, the price may rise to the 1st resistance at 1.28229, which is in line with 38.2% fibonacci retracement and swing low. 

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st support at 1.27323
  • H4 time frame, 2nd support at 1.26477

OIL:

On the H4, with price braking the descending trendline, and the histograms of MACD are above zero axis, we have a bullish bias that the price may rise from our 1st resistance at 103.213, which is in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement, overlap resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci projection to the 2nd resistance at 111.768, which is in line with the swing high. Otherwise, the price may drop to our 1st support at 95.881, where the swing low support is. 

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 103.213
  • H4 time frame, 2nd resistance at 111.768

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku indicator and along an ascending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to 1st resistance at 33493 where the pullback resistance is. Once there is upside confirmation that price has broken 1st resistance structure, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to 2nd resistance at 34127 in line with swing high resistance. Alternatively, price could drop to 1st support at 32768 where the pullback support, 23.6% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection are.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 33493
  • H4 time frame, 1st support at 32768

DAX:

On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku indicator and within the ascending channel, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from 1st support at 13683.48 where the pullback support is to the 1st resistance at 14227.40 in line with 100% fibonacci projection and 78.6% fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, price could break 1st support and drop to 2nd support at 13378.95 where the overlap support, -27.2% fibonacci expansion, 100% fibonacci projection and 23.6% fibonacci retracement are.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance of  14227.40
  • H4 time frame, 1st support at 13683.48

ETHUSD:

On the H4, with price moving within an ascending channel and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to 1st resistance at 1916.72 where the -27.2% fibonacci expansion and swing high resistance are. Once there is upside confirmation that price has broken 1st resistance structure, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to 2nd resistance at 2015.54 in line with swing high resistance and 100% fibonacci projection. Alternatively, price could drop to 1st support at 1792.30 where the overlap support, 23.6% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 1916.72
  • H4 time frame, 1st support at 1792.30

BTCUSD:

On the H4, with price moving within a bullish channel as well as above the ichimoku indicator and RSI moving along an ascending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 24703.69 where the swing high resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection are. Once there is upside confirmation that price has broken 1st resistance structure, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to 2nd resistance at 26779.85 where the 61.8% fibonacci retracement, -61.8% fibonacci expansion, 161.8% fibonacci extension and 100% fibonacci projection are. Alternatively, price could drop to 1st support at 22560.82 where the pullback support, 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection are.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 24703.69
  • H4 time frame, 1st support at 22560.82

S&P 500:

On the H4, with price reversing off the stochastic resistance, we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our 1st support at 4182.68 where the pullback support is. Once there is downside confirmation that price has broken the 1st support structure, we would expect bearish momentum to carry price to 2nd support at 4087.73 where the pullback support is. Alternatively, price could rise to 1st resistance at 4278.78 where the overlap resistance and -27.2% fibonacci expansion are.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 4278.78
  • H4 time frame, 1st support at 4182.68

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