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Friday 31st December 2021 : Technical Outlook and Review

DXY:

On the weekly, prices are on bullish momentum and abiding to our ascending trendline. We see potential for prices to dip from our 1st resistance  at 96.125 in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension and 161.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support at 94.650 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. RSI is at a level where dips previously occurred.

On the daily, prices are on a bullish momentum and abiding to a bullish trendline. We see potential for prices to bounce from our 1st support at 95.716 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st resistance at 96.818 in line with 200% Fibonacci projection. Our EMA 21 and ichimoku clouds are showing bullish momentum.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are on bearish momentum and abiding to our bearish trendline. We would expect a dip from our 1st resistance at 96.110 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support at 95.849 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences. Ichimoku clouds are further supporting our bearish bias.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 96.110
  • H4 time frame, 1st support at 95.849

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly, prices are consolidating is a triangle pattern and have the potential to climb further from our 1st support at 1784.333 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st resistance at 1848.842 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Stochastics are at levels where bounces previously occurred.

On the daily, prices are on bullish momentum. We see potential for a pullback from our 1st resistance at 1827.265 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support at 1799.226 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.  Stochastics are at a level were dips previously occurred 

On the H4 chart, prices are on bullish momentum.. We see potential for prices to climb further from our 1st support at 1810.698 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 1831.910 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences. Ichimoku clouds are further supporting our bullish bias.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 1st support at 1810.698
  • H4 1st resistance at 1831.910

GBP/USD

On the weekly chart price is near 1st resistance level of 1.33833 which is also 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection. Price can potentially go to the 2nd resistance of 1.42529 which is the graphical swing high resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is supported by the ichimoku cloud indicator. 

On the daily chart price is abiding by the descending trendline and is near 1st support level of 1.31675 which is also 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Price can potentially go to the 1st resistance level of 1.38756 which is 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our bullish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator as it is near support level. 

On the H4 chart, price has recently broken out of the descending channel  and  near 1st support level of 1.34251 which is also 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially go to the 1st resistance of 1.36047 which is 100% Fibonacci projection and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.  Our bullish bias is supported by the ichimoku cloud indicator as price is trading above it. 

Areas of consideration : 

  • H4 1st support 1.34251
  • H4 1st resistance 1.36047

USD/CHF

On the Weekly timeframe, price is reacting in a triangle pattern.  Traders should wait for the price to swing higher or lower before entering. On the Daily timeframe, we can expect an overall bullish momentum. Price could bounce from 1st Support in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% FIbonacci projection towards 1st Resistance in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is further supported by the stochastics indicator where the %D line is at the support level.

On the H4 timeframe, price broke out of the ascending trendline support, signifying potential bearish momentum. We can expect price to drop from 1st Resistance in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection towards 1st Support in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension and 100% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is further supported by price holding below the Ichimoku cloud and RSI is abiding to the descending trendline resistance. 

Areas of consideration:

  • Watch 1st Support at 0.91030
  • Watch 1st Resistance at 0.91562

EUR/USD :

On the weekly chart price is near 1st resistance level of 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Price can potentially dip to the 1st support level of 1.09765 which is also 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Our bearish bias is supported by the ichimoku cloud indicator as price is trading below it. 

On the daily chart,  price is abiding by the descending trendline and is near the 1st resistance level of 1.13787 which is also 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection. Price can potentially dip to the 1st support level of 1.1137 which is also 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our bearish bias is supported by the ichimoku cloud indicator as price is trading below it.

On the H4 chart, price is near the first resistance level of 1.13740 which is the 78.6% Fibonacci projection and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially dip to the 1st support level of 1.12339 which is 100% Fibonacci projection and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Our bearish bias is supported by  technical indicators 

Areas of consideration : 

  • H4 1st resistance 1.13740
  • H4 1st support 1.12339

USD/JPY

On the Weekly timeframe, we can see that price touched the 1st resistance in line with horizontal swing highs and 127.2% FIbonacci Retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci Projection. We can expect the price to drop from the 1st Resistance towards the 1st Support in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection and 50% Fibonacci retracement. Our short-term bearish momentum is further supported by the stochastic %K line holding below the descending trendline resistance and bearish divergence spotted. On the Daily timeframe, we can expect price to drop from 1st Resistance in line with 100% Fibonacci projection and previous swing high towards 1st Support in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection .Our bearish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator where %K line is at the resistance level. 

On the H4 timeframe, price is abiding to the ascending channel, showing an overall bullish momentum. However, we can expect a short term bearish momentum and drop from 1st resistance in line with graphical overlap resistance and 127.2% Fibonacci projection towards 1st Support in line with graphical overlap support, 61.8% Fibonacci projection and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Our bearish bias is further supported by stochastic where the %K line dropped from the resistance. 

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 1st resistance level 115.175
  • H4 1st support level 114.418

AUD/USD:

In reference to last week’s analysis, price has bounced nicely on the 1st Support. On the weekly, we can now expect the price to continue to push higher  from the 1st Support in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection, 38.2 % FIbonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extensions. Our bullish bias is further supported by the RSI indicator abiding to an ascending trendline. Traders should wait for price to swing higher or lower before entering again.  In reference to last week’s analysis price indeed bounced nicely on the 1st Support on the daily timeframe. On the Daily, the price is at the 1st support, we can expect the price to continue to push higher from 1st Support in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement towards 1st Resistance in line with 100% Fibonacci projection and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our bullish bias is further supported by the MACD indicator where the MACD line is above the signal line.
On the H4, price is reacting in an ascending channel, signifying bullish momentum. However, price is currently at a resistance, we can expect price to drop from 1st Resistance in line with 127.2% Fibonacci projection and -27.2% Fibonacci Extension towards 1st Support in line with 100% Fibonacci projection and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Our short-term bearish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator where the %K line is at the resistance level.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 1st Support level 0.71203
  • H4 1st resistance level 0.72496

 

NZD/USD:

On the weekly, prices are on a bullish momentum. We see potential for a bounce at 1st support at 0.69794 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards 1st resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Technical indicators are showing bullish momentum. Alternatively, if prices break our 1st support, we might find it dipping towards our 2nd support at 0.69794 in line with 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.

On the daily, prices are on bearish momentum. We see potential for prices to dip from our 1st resistance at 0.68166 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support at 0.67203 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Ichimoku clouds are forecasting the dips.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are consolidating in an ascending triangle and are experiencing a squeeze. We see potential for prices to bounce from our 1st support at 0.68211 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st resistance at 0.68676 in line with 61.8% and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Our bias is further supported by the Ichimoku Clouds forecasting bullish momentum and also RSI showing bullish momentum.  Alternatively, our stop loss will be placed at our 2nd support at 0.67886 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 0.68676
  • H4 time frame, 1st support at 0.68211

USD/CAD:

On the Weekly, with price at the resistance of the ichimoku indicator and horizontal swing high resistance, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our 1st resistance at 1.29626 which is in line with horizontal overlap resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level to 1st  support at 1.223427, which is in line with horizontal swing low support. Alternatively, price may rise up to our 2nd resistance at 1.33505, which coincides with horizontal swing high resistance, 50% Fibonacci retracement level . This is further supported by how price just rejected off the Stochastic resistance level .

On the Daily, with price on a downwards trend on the stochastics indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our 1st resistance at 1.2863 which is in line with horizontal overlap resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level to 1st  support at 1.26358, which is in line with horizontal overlap support, 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. Alternatively, price may rise up to our 2nd resistance at 1.30049, which coincides with horizontal swing high resistance, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level . This is further supported by how price just rejected off the Stochastic resistance level .

On the H4, with price breaking the ascending trendline at 1st resistance of 1.27676 which is in line with horizontal overlap resistance, price can potentially drop to 1st support at 1.26839, which is in line with horizontal swing low support, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Alternatively, price may rise up to 2nd resistance at 1.2832, which coincides with horizontal swing high resistance, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level . This is further supported by how price is now holding below the Ichimoku cloud resistance.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st support at 1.26839
  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 1.27676

OIL: 

On the Weekly, with price moving above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 85.75 which is in line with horizontal swing high resistance and 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level from our 1st  support at 70.27, which is in line with horizontal swing low support. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and drop to our 2nd support at 58.47, which coincides with horizontal overlap support and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

On the Daily, with price at the resistance of the ichimoku indicator and horizontal swing high resistance, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our 1st resistance at 80.13 which is in line with horizontal swing high resistance and  61.8% Fibonacci retracement level to 1st  support at 71,63, which is in line with horizontal swing low support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, price may rise up to our 2nd resistance at 86.44, which coincides with horizontal swing high resistance.

On the H4, with price on a downwards trend on the stochastics indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our 1st resistance at 79.4 which is in line with horizontal overlap resistance, 161.8% Fibonacci extension and 100% Fibonacci projection level to 1st  support at 75.52, which is in line with horizontal overlap support, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Alternatively, price may rise up to our 2nd resistance at 82.83, which coincides with horizontal swing high resistance and 127.2% Fibonacci extension level . 

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 79.40
  • H4 time frame, 1st support of 75.52

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly, with price approaching the resistance of the stochastics indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our 1st resistance at 36579 which is in line with horizontal swing high resistance and 161.8% Fibonacci extension level to 1st  support at 34212, which is in line with horizontal swing low support and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Alternatively, price may rise up to our 2nd resistance at 37660, which coincides with horizontal swing high resistance and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

On the daily, with price approaching the resistance of the stochastics indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our 1st resistance at 36570 which is in line with horizontal swing high resistance, 127.2% Fibonacci extension level to 1st  support at 35967, which is in line with horizontal overlap support, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Alternatively, price may rise up to our 2nd resistance at 37151, which coincides with horizontal swing high resistance and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. 

On the H4, with price on a downwards trend on the stochastics indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our 1st resistance at 36512 which is in line with horizontal swing high resistance and 127.2% Fibonacci extension level to 1st  support at 35594, which is in line with horizontal overlap support, 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. Alternatively, price may rise up to our 2nd resistance at 36999, which coincides with horizontal swing high resistance and 161.8% Fibonacci extension . 

Area of consideration:

  • 4H resistance at 36512
  • 4H support at 35594

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