EUR/USD:
Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are still in an uptrend and are holding above the key support level at 1.19500 which can be found on the weekly and daily time frame. This level also coincides with our 50% fibonacci retracement and ascending trend line on the daily time frame.
On the H4 timeframe, prices are facing upside pressure from our support at 1.20590 which coincides with our 38.2% fibonacci retracement as well as the graphical support area. This would be an interesting level for buyers and recent price action around that area suggests it is a strong area of demand flowing where we could see a further push up to our resistance target at 1.21650 which can also be found on the daily time frame.
Areas of consideration:
- 20590 support area found on H4 time frame
- 21650 resistance level found on H4 and daily frame frame
GBP/USD:
Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are trading between our weekly support at 1.35030 and weekly resistance at 1.38470. On the daily time frame, prices are approaching resistance at 1.38470 and we are seeing limited downside before prices reach our weekly and daily support at 1.35030, in line with our daily ascending trend line.
On the H4 timeframe, we are seeing limited upside in prices, with short term resistance at the 1.38470, which can also be found on the daily time frame. This level coincides with the graphical resistance area. This would be an interesting level for sellers and recent price action around that area suggests it is a strong area of supply flowing in where we could see a potential reversal below this level.
Areas of consideration:
- 38470 resistance area resistance area found on H4 and Daily timeframe
- 37321 support area on H4 timeframe
AUD/USD:
(Previous analysis – Italics) We may witness a testing of the next Quasimodo resistance level at 0.7747, as well as the -61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
From the weekly timeframe, price continued its move up North above the Trendline resistance-turned support taken from the high 1.1080, as well as above the support level of 0.7605, a previous Quasimodo resistance. This bullish momentum has been established since March (2020).
On the Daily, price have moved away from the Trend line support, approaching the previous high at 0.7784 as well as a previous Quasimodo resistance. And the view on H4, buyers have continued to pushed price towards the previous Quasimodo resistance at 0.7747 and -61.8% retracement has been tapped on. The Three White soldiers formed starting from the major level of 0.77 has pushed prices into a new high, and using the fibonacci retracement, we witness the subsequent 2 candles testing the 61.8% retracement level before bouncing back to create a new high on 9th Feb (2021). On H4, -27% retracement is in line with the 0.7747 Quasimodo resistance, so it is wise to sit back and watch how price reacts on this level before calling the next move.
Areas of consideration:
- H4 facing resistance at 0.7747, a Quasimodo resistance as well as -27% Retracement level.
- Daily showing Three white soldiers, strong bullish move.
- Weekly shows more space for upside move.
USD/JPY
The US dollar reversed on Tuesday after failing to bounce at the 105.11 support and is making its way back into the 104 zone , with H4 retesting 104.58 support where the horizontal overlap is . We have seen buyers step in after price approached 104.58.
Against the backdrop of the H4 timeframe, Monday’s advance added upside impetus to the recent breakout above the weekly declining wedge (106.94/104.18). On the daily chart, price broke above the declining wedge and bounced further towards the weekly resistance level at 106.06, in line with the MA200 resistance. The daily timeframes displaying room to reach 106.06 underpins the possibility of further buying materialising north of 104.914(H4). However, before that on the H4 chart, we couldn’t ignore the resistance at 105.114 where the 100% fib extension is. If price is able to break above this 105 to 105.114 resistance zone, then we could expect the price to go north of 106.06 (weekly and daily).
Areas of consideration:
- 06 resistance on the Daily timeframe
- 58 support on H4 timeframe, in line with horizontal overlap support
USD/CAD:
Looking at the weekly chart, price have respected the descending trendline drawn from 13 April (2020) high, which is also the 1.2887 resistance level (a previous Quasimodo support level). It is important to note that the long-term picture has pointed the direction down (trend) since March (2020). On the daily time frame, price has been making a sideway consolidation between the Weekly resistance level at 1.2887 and Weekly support level at 1.2579. However, price has recently reversed from the descending trendline drawn from 18 March (2020) high, and is showing more bearish pressure.
H4 has reached the fine call of January opening level at 1.2713, in line with 161.8% and -61.8% fibonacci retracement, with a strong 50 pips bounce from the levels, showing where sellers had all their Take Profit levels at. Price currently sits between the major level of 1.27 and our last call of 1.2713, a bearish breakout from the major level may be a potential port of call towards the next -61.8% retracement level near 1.264.
Areas of consideration:
- On H4, Support-turned resistance at 1.2713 where January opening, 161.8% retracement and -61.8% retracement are in confluence.
- Next support level on H4 at -61.8% near 1.264 level.
- Weekly and Daily analysis show bearish pressure.
USD/CHF:
On the weekly timeframe, the horizontal pullback resistance level at 0.9014 has proven to be a level too strong for prices to break through, as we see price making a strong pullback to the downside. In this bearish scenario, we expect price to continue with a further push down towards the support level at 0.86960 as it holds below the descending trendline resistance as well.
On the daily timeframe, we see a similar bearish scenario, with price making a strong push to the downside as it holds below both the descending trendline and moving average resistances. Price is, however, showing a slight bounce at the 0.8920 level, which is a strong resistance-turned-support and also in line with our 50% Fibonacci retracement level. A break below this level could provide the momentum needed for a strong bearish move down towards the Quasimodo support level at 0.86830.
Looking at the H4 timeframe, price has dropped all the way back down to the support level at 0.89197 level, which is also in line with our 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where we currently see a slight bounce. Should price break below this level, we may see price going further south towards January’s opening level at 0.88240. However, should the 0.89197 level hold, price could be making a stronger pullback to the upside instead.
Areas of consideration:
- USD/CHF made a strong push down to the 0.89197 level after a strong bullish move up from last week
- 89197 level is an important level to watch and see if price manages to break below it and go further south.
- 86830 daily level would be the next downside target should price makes a further bearish move down.
Dow Jones Industrial Average:
On the weekly, price is still testing the 31272 level. A weekly close above this level should see price pushing even higher towards the next resistance at 32643. Otherwise, failure to hold above 31272 could mean that this is a fake out and probably pull back towards 29341 support. On the Daily, price continues to hold very strongly above ascending trendline support. Traders should be careful when deciding to trade any short term pullbacks as the bullish momentum on the longer term is very strong.
On the H4, price traded sideways whilst still holding above 31272 support level. Price still holding above moving average and MACD indicator above 0, showing room for further bullish upside. 31272 is the level where we may possibly see buyers pile in and add to their longs with a possible resistance target at 31773.8. Otherwise, failure to hold above 31272 could see price swing back and come back to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and moving average support at 30521.
Areas of consideration:
- 31272 key support to watch
- Bullish momentum on both the weekly and H4 chart is very strong.
XAU/USD (GOLD):
On the weekly timeframe, gold is still holding above long term moving average support. With price now close to support at 1764, traders can expect price to show a small bounce reaction above this level. On the daily chart, price came shy of 1764 support and drifted higher. Over the course of this week, we should see price ranging between 1875 resistance and 1764 support.
On the 4H timeframe, price tested and reacted below 1845 resistance which is also our 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Stochastic indicator has tested and reversed below resistance where price reacted in the past. It is possible to see sellers enter with their shorts to push price down towards intraday support at 1818. Otherwise, failure to hold below 1845 will see price swing the other way towards 1875.
Areas of consideration:
- 1845 resistance is a strong intraday resistance to watch
- Stochastic indicator testing resistance resistance where price reacted in the past
The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.
News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com.au, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.
The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property.
